What to expect in the November jobs report

In October, 12,000 the jobs October. initial only.
8:30 guess

am – labour jobs to of
When ET strike. a in the employment In the on
October, new estimates change November, Bureau Friday, the
beginning made for it of it November When in by the is is Labor report re-employing a FactSet. midst following anticipated believed Statistics is those way Unemployment of month to that will expected who – rate all was be the release to have from the made which 17 data the show been the noise at has times will employment a struck October is been higher show figures creation or report expected a than a for of weathered that fairly that strong to the 200 out was reliable of recovery remain month 000 of marred guide at of jobs their by in 4. November according hurricanes the 1% at and for a the ninth straight month in October.

"Last month, I told my readers, ‘Just throw it away;’ the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, ‘You know, we can’t provide you with any information about the impact of the hurricanes,’" Dan North, Allianz Trade’s senior economist for North America said to CNN. "So, what is going to happen this coming month? Is there going to be an even more significant increase than the one that was seen in October? Well, that would be normal.

"For November, Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group predicts job gains of 250,000 jobs. Such an abrupt shift to the north would indicate general increase in payroll employment to approximately 150 thousand jobs per month, he said.

“That’s a good, solid number,” he told CNN. “I think that the labor market continues to do well and is supporting income growth which allows for consumers to increase their spending.

The optimism regarding the labour market’s stability – although October was a deviance – is also supported by the fact that layoff rates have not increased and unemployment claims have decreased in recent periods.

"Which suggests that the labor market is still doing quite well," Faucher said.

The unemployment rate was 3.6% in May and the number of job openings increased to 7.7 million in October from 7. 4 million in September according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Department of Labor. That surpassed the economists’ forecast of 7. 5 million job openings for October as per the consensus estimate provided by FactSet.

In October work separations were up by 228,000 to 3. 3 million from the previous month. But, compared to a year ago, the number of quits is down by 308,000. Also, the number of people laid off from jobs fell by 169,000 in October to 1. 6 million in September.

This is also reflected in the weekly unemployment claims which tells The a number different of story continued of claims the for labor unemployment market: benefits, The which employers is are the now information cutting down that on is hiring. reported
by
the people who have been getting unemployment insurance for a week or more, has touched a three-year high.

According to Faucher, "Overall, we still have got a tight labor market and we see that layoffs are historically low right now,” “I think that businesses are reluctant to lay workers off. They're hiring less, but they're not laying off... This is a good time to hold a job.

Despite the messy October data, the real life labour market activity is still great: This period of employment growth is now tied for the third best on record, BLS data demonstrates.

Still, a clean October report could have gone a long way in providing some clarity as to whether the labor market was strengthening further or weakening further, Claudia Sahm, the economist at New Century Advisors, told CNN in late October.

Sequentially weaker than expected July and August employment numbers which were subsequently revised upwards helped the Fed to ease rates which had hitherto been a lot dependent on the health of the labor market.

"We think that with a right adjustment of our policy regime, the economy and the labor market can continue to strengthen, while inflation would steadily move toward the level of 2 percent," Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed said in December.

Nevertheless, the events that will occur in the next few weeks or months may alter the view on the labor market, inflation, and the economy as a whole.

President-elect Donald Trump has plans to impose taxes or tariffs which if implemented according to the experts may have deporting a and devastating imposing impact strict on immigration rules. the
US
companies The and surge consumers in besides immigration especially after the pandemic has been a major source of strength for the labor market and hence the job creation each month.

"Supply-side factors have been one of the reasons the Fed has been able to reduce rates to this point," Brett Ryan, a senior US economist at Deutsche Bank said in an interview. "If that changes then it is one more reason not to reduce rates and our base case is that we do not see the Fed cutting again at the meeting in December.

It is also possible for October’s 12,000 figure, which is the lowest monthly gain since September 2013, to be revised up.

Another key survey that goes into the formation of the monthly employment numbers–the establishment survey–had a very low response rate of 47. 4% in October, the lowest since 1991, BLS data indicates. This rate has been at 65% in the past four years.

Also, no changes were made to the estimation methods for either the establishment or household survey so that it led to this rather low number of 12,000 jobs for October.

Also, the BLS made no changes to the survey data gathering procedures for either the establishment or household survey – this means that this meek 12,000 job figure for October can be expected to increase in the subsequent months.

As for the jobs report, it is important to note that the estimates that are reported to on submit a their payroll monthly data basis (and are this considered is to even be preliminary more when so first this published time since around, because not in all times the of respondents are able disaster, people do not report to the BLS the data that they are required to report).

Those survey-based estimates are revised twice further and then held constant until the BLS performs what is referred to as ‘benchmarking’ to bring the estimates to come in line with the quarterly tax filings.